In 1995, Braveheart fever swept across Scotland. Far from directing their energies at scolding the ludicrous innacuracy of the plot (Sophie Marceau's French princess - William Wallace's love interest in the movie - having been three years old in the stuffy muddled world of facts), young Scots everywhere instead felt compelled to rampage around playgrounds across the nation practising medieval sordities on anyone presenting as remotely English.
Two years later, the trailblazing Blair-Brown coalition were elected and instantly pressed plans for a devolved Scotland into overdrive. The advent of our own Westminster sanctioned parliament with powers over health, education and certain law policies was for many the first step in realising one of Wallace's less paedophilic ambitions; full independence. However, the vast majority of people polled around the time of devolution stressed a keen desire to remain in union with the United Kingdom.
Fast forward fifteen years and Blair is considered one of the most evil men in the world for dragging 'our boys' into unwinnable barely legal conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. The relative demise of Labour as a force in Scottish politics as a result of these indulgences and the absolute death of the Liberals as a reliable protest vote following their 'deal with the devil' coalition with the Conservatives has created a power vacuum that needed to be filled. Enter the Scottish national party who achieved the unthinkable and scored a majority in a parliament elected to some extent by proportional representation. An incredible achievement given the system was actively designed pre-1997 to 'guarantee' that the SNP could never achieve a majority.
Far from seeing victory as the result of either placation by previous policies unrelated to independence, apathy in the 18-35 age-group and the apparent suicide of the main competing forces in Scottish politics, the SNP took the achievement of their majority as a clear mandate to pursue their ambition of Scottish independence. And herein we arrive at the question I plan to answer today. Will I vote yes in the Scottish independence referendum?
The short answer to that is that I think an independent Scotland is a great idea. In a world where renewable energy, corporate finance and water as a profitable export will soon become a reality, Scotland possesses the raw materials to really thrive on its own at some point in the future. However, I do have many reservations that I feel presently over-ride my desire to pursue independence at this moment in time.
Firstly, I am concerned by the fact that it is the Scottish national party who are controlling negotiations from our end of the table. Alex Salmond - if his Hitler-esque tub thumping performance at the closing ceremony of the Ryder Cup is anything to go by - clearly has entrenched his ego in statesmanship and seems determined to stop at nothing to become the first leader of a truly independent Scotland.
Beneath the statesmanship and rhetoric, Alex Salmond has presented no real indication as to what form an independent Scottish government will take. At present, Westminster to some extent checks and balances the actions of the Scottish government over many issues but independence will present the reigns to the sitting administration. As recent election results have shown, even our electoral system which was designed to create checks and balances through the almost inevitable requirement for coalition politics, can sometimes throw up a situation where a majority can achieve power and the only checks and balances against them would be disparate minorty parties, a hostile press and the unlikely but I guess conceivable notion of a united and hostile public. Anarchy anyone?
This lack of a programme of action conveniently introduces one of the main oddities of the 2014 referendum on Scotland in that people will not be voting on a set of conditions - a manifesto if you will - that will be in place and upon which they can judge their desire for independence. They will simply be giving another mandate to the SNP, in this case it will be that the people want independence on whatever terms you can negotiate.
I worry that the Salmond administration will get us a fairly raw deal. Scotland requires a short term economic shot in the arm - and I'm talking 20 years - from North Sea oil revenues and also to preserve its ownership of its own natural freshwater resources. Scotland also needs to negotiate the share of the national debt that it will take on and also to contribute in some way to the cost of actively splitting from the UK. I worry that Salmond's personal and political agenda will sacrifice possible concessions from Westminster in these areas in favour of pushing through independence.
As a new nation, Scotland will also be extremely reliant on 'new-nation' support from the European Union and will require a great deal of funding to manage the economic strain that is an inevitable part of becoming a new nation. However, Salmond campaigned on the platform that he would not remove the pound from Scotland which contravenes the European dictum that anyone joining the European Union must join the Euro. As a result he is now bound the pursue mututally incompatible aims and one must question how he proposes to keep the pound and pursue EU membership.
Beneath Salmond of course, there is always a team. This team will work extremely hard to convince the Scottish people that a 'yes' vote in the independence referendum is a vote for Scotland. Already, it has been internalised to ensure that only people actually in Scotland can vote as a Scot on whether the nation should become independent. This will be spun to promote an internal responsibility to homeland Scots and play up to the national sentiment of being up against it from expatriates trying to sully the national dream. Hell it's already happened to me twice already and the referendum is almost two years away.
Salmond's team do of course have a helping hand in one or two areas also. Rupert Murdoch has openly suggested he will support an independent Scotland and we all know the extent to which his red-top can go to influence the will of its readers. The SNP will be able to rely on their staunch support from the elderly demographic which has of course carried them through recent elections and turns out more reliably than any other age group to vote. For some ludicrous reason, the Westminster government agreed that 16-18 year-old Scots could vote in the referendum. Giving the vote to an age group whose brain (forgive the psychologist in me) remains programmed to favour risk over aversion being allowed to vote in their first ever election on an issue that could radically alter the poltical landscape of the nation is simply not good news for the 'no' campaign or my own personal 'not now' agenda. Further to this, Scotland will host the commonwealth games and the Ryder Cup of golf in 2014. Salmond - his lectern punching Nuremburg style tirade at the Ryder Cup closing ceremony this year - made no secret of his intention to play these two events as feelgood events showcasing the ability of Scotland to look after itself. I really worry that so many people will vote 'yes' either for the wrong reasons or under the influence of inflated nationalism and misinformation.
Gordon Brown - who in many ways is responsible for this situation given his constant attempts to engender a sense of seperation between Scotland from the UK politically and thus enhance his image as a Scot who could govern the UK without a hidden personal nationalistic agenda - set out five conditions for the UK doing the Euro. In the same way, I would present the SNP with five conditions upon which, if satisfied, I would vote yes to Scottish independence.
1) A cross party coalition of experienced political negotiators driving for the best deal for Scotland.
2) A manifesto outlining where the SNP hopes to go with negotiations and what they hope to gain from negotiations for Scotland and also to outline their priorities in the immediate aftermath of independence. Show me a strategy.
3) The promise and delivery of clean campaigning which does not play on nationalism and historical anti-Englishness.
4) A promise on a governmental system whose policies are checked and balanced by a seperate entity and not all determined in a single chamber government.
5) Membership of the European Union guaranteed with the proviso that we can opt-out of the Euro which is a trade and a macro-micro economic nightmare.
I love my country, I love the people and I love the culture. However, without being satisfied in these five areas I see no better way to express my love and concern for my country than by voting 'no' in the independence referendum in 2014.
Hear ye! Hear ye! Hear ye?...
No comments:
Post a Comment